Jammu seems to be witnessing a new wave of terrorism. The latest attack on an army vehicle on the Machhedi-Kindli-Malhar road in the Badnota village of Kathua on July 8, in which five soldiers were killed in the line of duty, has sent alarm bells ringing within the security establishment.
The incident comes after a confrontation in the Kulgam district of Kashmir valley, where six terrorists and two soldiers were killed in two separate encounters.
From June 9, five terror strikes have taken place in the Jammu division of the Union Territory, in which eight security personnel and 10 civilians have been killed.
What Does the Data Show?
Since 2021, the Jammu region has witnessed 31 terror incidents in which 47 security forces and 19 civilians have been killed other than 48 terrorists who were killed in various encounters.
Meanwhile, the Kashmir Valley reported 263 terror incidents in which 68 security forces and 75 civilians were killed. As many as 417 alleged terrorists have also been killed in the Valley since 2021.
The data shows that although the incidents in Jammu remain far fewer than the Valley, it is the frequency and the nature of attacks, targeting pilgrims and security forces that is worrying.
What Could be the Reasons?
The attacks suggest that attempts have been made to revive militancy in the Jammu region over the past three years, in the Chenab Valley comprising Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, Kathua, Udhampur and Reasi districts and south of the Pir Panjal comprising Rajouri and Poonch districts.
Experts indicate after the 2020 Galwan clashes in eastern Ladakh, a large contingent of Army was pulled out of Jammu and deployed along the China border. The thinning of security area could have made the area vulnerable.
The recent shift of terrorist activities from Poonch and Rajouri to interior regions like Reasi and Jammu indicates an expanding area of operations, which now includes urban centres in Jammu.
What is the Geopolitical and Social Landscape of Jammu?
Jammu has witnessed the dark days of terrorism in the 1990s, but its resurgence over the past few years shows different operational tactics employed by militants.
In terms of overall security scenario, the Kashmir Valley has seen significant decrease in instances of stone-pelting, social unrest, strikes, especially after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, the government has claimed.
The Jammu region has rugged terrain with towering mountains, expansive plains and dense forests, which pose significant challenges for the conducting military operations.
Unlike Kashmir’s predominant Muslim population, Jammu has a mix of different communities. Thus, to stabilise cadres in the Kashmir Valley, militants are trying to “rake up insecurities in Jammu”, which could lead to communal flare-ups in the region, according to a report by The Hindu.
Reports suggest that there 20-25 hardened militants who are likely to have infiltrated from Pakistan. There are two groups – one that is likely active in the Poonch-Rajouri axis, and the other in the Kathua-Doda-Basantgarh belt in the east – as per an article by The Hindu.
Is There Local Support to Terrorists?
The Village Defence Guards/ Committees (VDGs) are being trained at a faster pace after seven Hindus, including two children, were killed on January 1-2, 2023 in Dangri by unidentified terrorists.
The VDGs were discontinued amid allegations of crimes such as abduction and rape committed by the members. But
Around 30,000 weapons are estimated to be with civilians in Poonch, Rajouri, Samba, Doda and Kishtwar districts. They were distributed to civilians by the local administrations in various phases since 1995 when militancy was at its peak in J&K, as per a report by The Hindu.
In 2003, the Army had launched Operation Sarp Vinaash near Hilkaka in the Poonch sector. In the aerial attacks, more than 60 terrorists, who had entrenched themselves in bunkers and trenches in the forest, were killed.
Timeline of Recent Attacks
Reasi Attack: On June 9, terrorists targeted a bus in Reasi in Jammu, causing it to plunge in a gorge, resulting in death of nine pilgrims and injuring 42 others.
December 2022: In Sidhra, four terrorists were killed in a firefight with security forces near Jammu, averting a major terror attack as a large cache of weapons was recovered.
May 2022: Four were killed in the Katra bus fire. It was initially believed to be an accident, but was later suspected to be a terror attack that used sticky bombs.
June 27, 2021: For the first time, low-flying drones were suspected to have been used to drop two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on security establishments and the Jammu air force station.
January-March 2021: Signs of increased terrorist activity and cross-border infiltration emerged. An entirely new operational strategy was used by Pakistan-backed terrorists. Sticky bombs were seized from the international border in Samba district. Terrorists used scientific methods to tunnel beneath border fences.
February 2018 Sunjuwan terror attack: In 2018, an army camp in Jammu’s Sunjuwan was attacked by the Jaish-e-Mohammad terror outfit. It involved heavily armed terrorists assaulting a military camp, resulting in the death of five army personnel, one civilian and injuries to several others. The attackers were neutralised after a prolonged gunfight.