Economic Survey 2024 Highlights: India's GDP To Grow At 6.5-7% In 2024-25

'All Economic Indicators Reflect Good Health of the Economy': Economist Sandeep Vempati

“The Economic Survey projects a real GDP growth of 6.5 to 7 percent for FY25. This is lower than the RBI’s estimate of 7.2 percent which was revised upwards from an earlier estimate of 7 percent. The Economic Survey forecast is in line with the Modi Government’s style of promising less and delivering more. Indian economy has registered a 8.2 percent CAGR during the three years post COVID. What is impressive is that this growth was registered despite economic shocks and global headwinds, Sandeep Vempati, economist with BJP, said.

All the economic indicators reflect the good health of the economy whether it is inflation, PMI and IIP numbers, declining NPAs, credit growth, household consumption growth, external sector, labour markets. Welfare measures in the past decade lead to 25 crore exiting multidimensional poverty. The Economic Survey notes that the decline in poverty Headcount Ratio was much faster between 2015-16 and 2019-21 than from 2005-06 to 2015-16, he added.

“The Modi Government has created more formal jobs – on an average 2 crore annually since EPFO began publishing numbers in the public domain than the prescribed number of jobs – 78.5 lakh annually until 2030 by the Economic Survey," Vempati said.

The Union Budget size is expected to be 49 lakh crores based on the tax buoyancy, possible tax cuts and tax incentives and higher than budgeted surplus transfer from RBI. The budget is likely to adhere to maintaining the quality of expenditure, fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability. It is likely to focus on MSMEs, exports, manufacturing and on the creation of quality income earning opportunities especially in rural areas to attract more women into the labour force.

The Budget may also find measures to nudge the private sector and sub-national governments in respect of expanding manufacturing and creating income earning opportunities, he also said.

Economic Survey Identifies Areas for Further Growth: PM Modi

“The Economic Survey highlights the prevailing strengths of our economy and also showcases the outcomes of the various reforms our Government has brought. It also identifies areas for further growth and progress as we move towards building a Viksit Bharat," PM Narendra Modi in a post on X.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates

Tax policies will have a major role to play in tackling income inequality in the coming years as the deployment of technology, like AI, can have a more deleterious impact on employment and income, the Economic Survey said on Monday.

It said globally, widening inequality is emerging as a crucial economic challenge confronting policymakers.

The 2022 State of Inequality in India report observed that in India, the top 1 per cent accounts for 6-7 per cent of the total incomes earned, while the top 10 per cent accounts for one-third of total incomes earned.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: Caution Against Significant Increase in Retail Investors In Stock Mkt

The Economic Survey cautioned against significant increase in retail participation in the stock market, saying expectation of higher returns without real market conditions is a matter of concern.

At the same time, it also mentioned that enhanced participation of retail investors lends stability to the capital market and noted the increasing interest of these investors in the derivative trading.

Over the last few years, the Indian capital markets have seen a surge in retail activity through direct trading in markets through their accounts and indirect trading through mutual fund channels.

According to Economic Survey 2023-24, retail investors’ share in the equity cash segment turnover was at 35.9 per cent in 2023-24 (FY24). The number of demat accounts with both depositories rose to 1,514 lakh in FY24 from 1,145 lakh in FY23.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: More FDI from China

Amidst strained ties with China, the Economic Survey made a strong case for seeking foreign direct investments (FDI) from Beijing to boost local manufacturing and tap the export market.

As the US and Europe are shifting their immediate sourcing away from China, it is more effective to have Chinese companies invest in India and then export the products to these markets rather than importing from the neighbouring country, the Survey said.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates

India’s path to sustainable development is fraught with challenges, as the country grapples with the twin imperatives of meeting burgeoning energy demands and reducing carbon emissions, the Economic Survey 2023-24 revealed.

The Survey underscores the complexities of India’s green transition, emphasizing the need for a diversified energy portfolio to achieve ambitious growth targets while adhering to climate commitments.

“Balancing development needs with a low-carbon pathway is a tightrope, especially when financed predominantly through domestic resources," the Survey noted, highlighting the financial strain of pursuing cleaner energy alternatives.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: CEA Press Briefing Ends

India’s path to sustainable development is fraught with challenges, as the country grapples with the twin imperatives of meeting burgeoning energy demands and reducing carbon emissions, the Economic Survey 2023-24 revealed.

The Survey underscores the complexities of India’s green transition, emphasizing the need for a diversified energy portfolio to achieve ambitious growth targets while adhering to climate commitments.

“Balancing development needs with a low-carbon pathway is a tightrope, especially when financed predominantly through domestic resources," the Survey noted, highlighting the financial strain of pursuing cleaner energy alternatives.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates

The agriculture insurance sector is likely to register growth from 2024 onwards, with an average real premium growth of 2.5 per cent over the medium term, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24.

The survey noted that agriculture insurance, accounting for about 12 per cent of the non-life insurance market, witnessed flat growth in FY23 due to a sharp decline in premium rates in the Kharif cropping season.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: CEA on economic growth

The Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) expressed optimism about economic growth while acknowledging the existing challenges. He believes that a 7% growth rate is achievable in the financial year 2024-25, but the official forecast is set between 6.5% and 7% to account for uncertainties.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: CEA on trade deficit with China

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) emphasized the need to balance the import of goods and capital. He noted that India’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs has increased over time, leading to a significant rise in the trade deficit with China. Two factors could further deepen this deficit: trade diversion by the West away from China, which would position India’s industries as intermediate suppliers between China and the West, similar to the roles of Mexico and Vietnam; and the push to enhance manufacturing capacity within India, which would increase reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: Agriculture carries huge potential for driving growth, says CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) emphasized the need to balance the import of goods and capital. He noted that India’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs has increased over time, leading to a significant rise in the trade deficit with China. Two factors could further deepen this deficit: trade diversion by the West away from China, which would position India’s industries as intermediate suppliers between China and the West, similar to the roles of Mexico and Vietnam; and the push to enhance manufacturing capacity within India, which would increase reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: India needs to create nearly 8 million jobs per annum, says CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) emphasized the need to balance the import of goods and capital. He noted that India’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs has increased over time, leading to a significant rise in the trade deficit with China. Two factors could further deepen this deficit: trade diversion by the West away from China, which would position India’s industries as intermediate suppliers between China and the West, similar to the roles of Mexico and Vietnam; and the push to enhance manufacturing capacity within India, which would increase reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: Domestic growth key to countering Viksit Bharat headwinds, says CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) emphasized the need to balance the import of goods and capital. He noted that India’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs has increased over time, leading to a significant rise in the trade deficit with China. Two factors could further deepen this deficit: trade diversion by the West away from China, which would position India’s industries as intermediate suppliers between China and the West, similar to the roles of Mexico and Vietnam; and the push to enhance manufacturing capacity within India, which would increase reliance on Chinese manufacturing inputs.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: PLI Schemes Delivering, Says CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) stated that the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are delivering significant results as of May 2024. These schemes are gaining momentum and showing substantial progress in key sectors such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, with reported investments exceeding Rs 1.28 lakh crore.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: 'All hands on table' is this Eco Survey's overarching theme, says CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) stated that the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are delivering significant results as of May 2024. These schemes are gaining momentum and showing substantial progress in key sectors such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, with reported investments exceeding Rs 1.28 lakh crore.

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live Updates: Pvt capex rebounding

According to the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), private capital expenditure (capex) has rebounded following a period of stagnation.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: Indian economy on a strong wicket and stable footing, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

According to the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), private capital expenditure (capex) has rebounded following a period of stagnation.

Economic Survey 2024 Live: CEA Nageswaran advices more FDI from China to boost India's exports

India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran in the Economic Survey document said that India can either integrate into China’s supply chain or promote foreign direct investment (FDI) from the neighbour to boost global exports, Reuters reported

“Among these choices, focusing on FDI from China seems more promising for boosting India’s exports to the U.S., similar to how East Asian economies did in the past."

The report said choosing the FDI strategy “appears more advantageous than relying on trade" as it can arrest the growing trade deficit New Delhi has with Beijing, the top exporter for India.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: A tripartite pact that can push growth above 7%

The Indian economy has the potential to achieve a growth rate of over 7 percent consistently in the medium term by leveraging the structural reforms implemented over the past decade. To realize this, a collaborative effort between the Union Government, state governments, and the private sector is essential, as highlighted in the Economic Survey presented in Parliament on Monday.

Budget 2024, Economic Survey Live Updates: Economic shocks and India's ability to create employment

The Economic Survey pointed out that India suffered two big economic shocks in quick succession;

• Bad debts in the banking system and high corporate indebtedness were one
• It took the first term of the present government and more to bring it under control
• Covid pandemic was the second shock and quickly followed the first one

  So, it is difficult to conclude that the Indian economy’s ability to create employment is structurally impaired, the survey added. Going forward, the task is cut out.

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: India's coal story

Coal production has accelerated over the past five years

• In FY24, India produced 997.2 million tonnes of coal
• India imported 261 million tonnes
• The country consumed 1233.86 million tonnes

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live Updates: On Corporate Sector

The corporate sector in India has been posting impressive financial performances, but recruitment and salary growth of employees have not kept up with the companies’ profit, the government has said in the Economic Survey for 2023-24.

Stressing that job creation happens mainly in the private sector, the government said, “In terms of financial performance, the corporate sector has never had it so good. Results of a sample of over 33,000 companies show that, in the three years between FY20 and FY23, the profit before taxes of the Indian corporate sector nearly quadrupled… Hiring and compensation growth hardly kept up with it. But, it is in the interest of the companies to step up hiring and worker compensation."

PM-AWAS-Gramin: 2.63 crore houses constructed for the poor in the last nine years, Economic Survey

The corporate sector in India has been posting impressive financial performances, but recruitment and salary growth of employees have not kept up with the companies’ profit, the government has said in the Economic Survey for 2023-24.

Stressing that job creation happens mainly in the private sector, the government said, “In terms of financial performance, the corporate sector has never had it so good. Results of a sample of over 33,000 companies show that, in the three years between FY20 and FY23, the profit before taxes of the Indian corporate sector nearly quadrupled… Hiring and compensation growth hardly kept up with it. But, it is in the interest of the companies to step up hiring and worker compensation."

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: Rise of India's electronics manufacturing sector

India’s electronics manufacturing sector accounted for an estimated 3.7 per cent of the global market share in FY22

• Domestic production of electronic items increased significantly to Rs 8.22 lakh crore
• The exports rose to Rs 1.9 lakh crore in FY23

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: The PLI powerplay

According to the Economic Survey, Rs 1.28 lakh crore of investment was reported until May 2024, which has led to production/sales of Rs 10.8 lakh crore and employment generation (direct & indirect) of over Rs 8.5 Lakh under the PLI scheme.

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: Most States and UTs in FY24 witnessed decreased inflation rates

According to the Economic Survey, most States and Union Territories in FY24 witnessed decreased inflation rates, with 29 out of 36 recording rates below 6 per cent – consistent with the overall decline in all-India average retail inflation compared to FY23.

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: Services sector estimated to have grown by 7.6 per cent in FY24

The survey quoted Provisional Estimates and stated that the services sector is estimated to have grown by 7.6 per cent in FY24. Globally, India’s services exports constituted 4.4 per cent of the world’s commercial services exports in 2022. Post-pandemic, services exports have maintained a steady momentum and accounted for 44 per cent of India’s total exports in FY24.

FY24 ended with an outstanding services sector credit of Rs 45.9 lakh crore in March 2024, with a YoY growth of 22.9 per cent.

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: On fuel prices

The Economic Survey stated that the global energy price index experienced a sharp decline in FY24. On the other hand, the Central Government announced price cuts for LPG, petrol, and diesel. As a result, retail fuel inflation stayed low in FY24. The survey provided a detailed account of govt’s action to reduce fuel prices;

• In August 2023, the price of domestic LPG cylinders was reduced by Rs 200 per cylinder across all markets in India. Since then, LPG inflation has been in the deflationary zone, starting from September 2023.
• Similarly, in March 2024, the Central Government lowered the prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per litre. Consequently, retail inflation in petrol and diesel used in vehicles also moved to the deflationary zone in March 2024.

Economic Survey 2024 Live: On uncertainty created by Artificial Intelligence

The Economic Survey document noted that artificial intelligence (AI) casts a “huge pall of uncertainty" with regard to impact on workers “across all skill levels".

Notably, this was an issue raised in the mini document published in January ahead of the Interim Budget as well.

Economic Survey Budget 2024 Live: Capital formation of Rs 10.9 lakh crore in FY24

Primary capital markets facilitated capital formation of Rs 10.9 lakh crore during FY24 (approximately 29 per cent of the gross fixed capital formation of private and public corporates during FY23).